Fewer walleye for sport fisherman and the fishing industry are just one of the distinct risks involved in global climate change.
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View full sizeBob Hanko of Wakeman catches a large Lake Erie walleye through a hole in the ice in this 2014 photograph. Lake Erie fishing may not be possible in the future. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Longer shipping seasons for lake freighters, but fewer walleye for sport fisherman and the fishing industry are just one of the distinct risks involved in global climate change.
In its latest report, the Risky Business Project has taken a closer look at the economic impact of hotter summers, warmer winters and unpredictable weather on the Midwest, the nation's agricultural heartland and its manufacturing hub.
In addition to warmer and probably more polluted Great Lakes, other changes facing the Midwest include:
- Jarring changes in agricultural production, including weather changes so drastic that Ohio farmers may not be able to grow some crops, including corn.
- Changes in manufacturing aimed at conserving much more expensive power while dealing with lower productivity from workers due to extremes in temperatures.
- Changes in electricity generation as warmer lakes and rivers make it more difficult for some traditional power plants to operate at peak efficiency.
- Soaring demand for electricity in the summer that will more than offset the cost of lower winter heating.
- Increases in crime. Statistics have shown that the warmer the weather, the more crimes are committed.
In agriculture, where corn, soybeans and wheat are grown will probably change, and the amount of food grown will also change, the analysis concludes.
In Ohio alone, corn and soybean production during the next 25 years is iffy, decreasing in some weather scenarios, increasing a little in others. Wheat production would be up, however.
By the end of this century, Ohio's farmland and its crops would be unrecognizable to today's farmers. Production of corn would be down by as much as 50 percent, soybeans down by 72 percent in one study, but up by nearly a third in another scenario. The big change would be in wheat -- up by 18 to 43 percent.
All of these changes would have economic impacts on the farmers themselves, who in many cases would be changing crops and the equipment needed to plant, harvest and handle them.
"Climate had been talked about primarily in the language of science or the environment, but it's a very real economic issue," said former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and one of the founders of the Risky Business Project.
In remarks on Friday in Minneapolis when the project released its report assessing the risks the Midwest will face over this century, Paulson said the detailed analyses is "an opportunity to give business leaders the tools they need to understand the risks associated with climate, the costs and the risks associated with doing nothing."
Gregory Page, former CEO and now executive chairman at Cargill, Inc., said his company has looked at how not preparing for climate change or not trying to head it off could lead to the inability to "feed 9 billion people."
"The two words we have talked about are adaptation and resilience. Some condominiums in Florida with wet basements is one issue. The inability to feed 9 billion people 30 years from now is an entirely different issue.
"We have tried to use responsibility and morality. There is a moral element to getting involved. We ant to try to be a voice to call out to agriculture ... to get engaged in this discussion and to be seen not necessarily as believes, certainly not as deniers, but as discussers," he said.
The sheer size of the Midwest -- from Ohio to Iowa, from Minnesota to Kansas -- means there is no one recommendation, or one set of recommendations.
And the report, available online here, looks at each state as well as metropolitan regions, and then lays out some of the probable consequences of longer summers that include more days where temperatures soar over 95 degrees and winters that barely make it below the freezing mark.
The analysis also looks at specific metropolitan regions. In Ohio, the study combines the northern cities of Cleveland and Toledo, predicting that winter-based industries will probably have a much more difficult time and that urban centers will be much hotter
"The Cleveland/Toledo area has had, on average, fewer than one day over 95degF each year over the past 30 years," the report notes.
"Our current emissions pathway will likely result in two to five such days each year over the next five to 25 years, three to 14 extremely hot days per year by mid-century, and 10 to 66 days over 95degF likely by the end of this century."
Using standard probability risk assessment practiced by businesses today, the project then lays out worst and best case scenarios, not only in agriculture but also in manufacturing, energy production and crime.
The Risky Business Project is a joint nonpartisan initiative chaired by Paulson, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former senior managing member of Farallon Capital Management Thomas P. Steyer.
In its general conclusions, the project urges business to get involved and to push for policy changes.
"Our goal in this report is not to dictate those policy pathways. However, we do strongly urge the Midwest business community to play an active role in supporting this region's policymakers and elected officials as they take steps toward climate mitigation and preparedness, so that this region can model the kind of behavior we need to see nationally on these issues.
"These activities are critical in showing regional public and private sector leadership in addressing short-term climate actions and long-term climate risk. Ultimately, the single most effective way for businesses to decrease the risks we have identified in this project is for business leaders to push for strong and consistent public sector action to address those risks," the report concludes.