"The holiday season is a marathon, not a sprint," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. From now through Christmas Eve, "every day is going to be Black Friday, and every minute is going to be Cyber Monday."
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Retailers' decision to jump-start the holiday season on Nov. 1 got consumers spending early, but also siphoned off sales from Thanksgiving and Black Friday through Cyber Monday. That's why some Cyber Monday discounts have spilled over into "Cyber Tuesday" and the rest of this week, to spur sales and shed inventory.
"We got off to a very good start, and a number of retailers reported getting off the blocks well, but the holiday season is a marathon, not a sprint," National Retail Federation President and Chief Executive Matthew Shay said. From now through Christmas Eve, "every day is going to be Black Friday, and every minute is going to be Cyber Monday."
"As many retailers said repeatedly, the only thing this can be compared to is the Super Bowl," he added.
No retailer wants a repeat of last year's holiday season, when two bad-weather weekends wiped out prime shopping days just before Christmas and left some stores with too many unsold goods.
This year, Walmart launched its Black Friday promotions the day after Halloween, kicking off competition among retailers to see who could offer the best deals long before Thanksgiving.
In the end, an estimated 133.7 million unique shoppers hit stores and websites between Thanksgiving and Sunday, down 5.2 percent from last year's 141.1 million shoppers that same period, according to Prosper Insights & Analytics, for the National Retail Federation. More than 55 percent of holiday shoppers were online or in stores over the weekend, versus nearly 59 percent in 2013.
Consumers spent an average of $380.95 over Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend, down 6 percent from last year's $407.02. That pushed the total spend for the weekend to $50.9 billion, down more than 11 percent from last year's $57.4 billion.
The National Retail Federation said 126.9 million consumers expected to shop on Cyber Monday, a slight dip from the 131.6 million who said they were going to last year.
Shay attributed the decline in weekend traffic and sales to "a strengthening economy that changes consumers' reliance on deep discounts, a highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online."
But he stressed that the retail federation was sticking by its earlier forecast that holiday sales would grow 4.1 percent this season.
"In talking to retailers, they're incredibly optimistic. They feel good about what's going on," he said.
An improving economy means shoppers are less dependant on Black Friday and Thanksgiving doorbuster prices, and don't automatically pounce on the first $199 flat-screen TV they see.
"Once upon a time, the only day that things got marked down was on Black Friday," Shay said. But consumers now know their favorite stores will have sweet deals on days other than Black Friday, perhaps even closer to Christmas.
Even though 98 percent of online retailers polled said they were going to offer Cyber Monday promotions, "consumers know shopping on Cyber Monday won't be their last chance to find low prices and exclusive promotions," Shay said. "Every day is potentially a Cyber Monday," and with 24/7 shopping, consumers can get something almost every minute that they don't have to wait for Cyber Monday to buy.
NRF Senior Vice President and Shop.org Executive Director Vicki Cantrell said retailers are trying to make online shopping more appealing with more "free shipping deals, low prices and enhanced buy online, pick up in-store programs."
Falling gas prices, a robust stock market, rising home values and soaring consumer confidence all point to stronger holiday sales, and consumers are definitely spending, but they are also paying close attention to price, selection, and convenience, Shay said. "If the deals aren't right for them, they're not going to spend."
Black Friday still reigns as the biggest shopping day so far this holiday season, with 86.9 million shoppers out at the malls or on retailers' websites. About 43.1 million consumers said they shopped on Thanksgiving, not too many more than last year's 31.8 percent despite the fact that more stores were open on Thursday.
Of course, not everyone's sales were down this past weekend. Shay said both Walmart and Target had record-breaking sales this year.
-- Walmart, which kicked off its Walmart.com Cyber Week promotions on Saturday, said the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday was its highest ever in terms of online traffic and orders, and that Cyber Monday was its biggest online day ever. Shoppers viewed more than 1.5 billion pages on Walmart.com, with about 70 percent of the traffic coming from mobile.
-- Groupon also reported a record holiday weekend, the most successful four days ever in its six-year history, with North American sales up more than 25 percent over last year. Popular categories included electronics, household items, jewelry, NFL ugly sweaters, and 1.50-carat princess-cut or round diamond solitaire 14-karat gold rings.
Shopping Days Left Until Christmas