Cleveland's population crisis is caused not by people leaving but by so few people arriving, according to a new study that sees "churn" as key to economic growth.
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Stacey Brown, left, moved from San Francisco to downtown Cleveland last year, helping offset a damaging population pattern. A new study says Greater Cleveland hangs on to its residents better than most regions but attracts far too few newcomers. CLEVELAND, Ohio--Cleveland's population crisis burst into the public consciousness with the 2010 census, which revealed the city had lost an astonishing 17 percent of its residents in a decade and dropped to its lowest ebb in 100 years.
The census reported another set of facts not so widely discussed. Most major American cities -- even cities associated with growth and new prosperity -- bid adieu to far more people than left Cleveland.
In fact, Greater Cleveland lost fewer residents than the metro areas of Columbus, Chicago, Minneapolis, Boston and 33 other regions of the country. For most cities on the rise, salvation came not from keeping established residents but from welcoming new arrivals.
That lack of churn, the natural coming and going of people, is causing Cleveland's population plunge and crippling the region's economic future, according to a new study being released Wednesday.
The report by Strategic Urban Solutions, a Cleveland-Chicago consulting firm, argues a culturally staid city needs to open up to new people and new ideas if it is going to compete in the global economy and offer a good quality of life.
The report calls for more assertive welcoming efforts and points to islands of hope, urban neighborhoods and inner-ring suburbs already attracting new Clevelanders, that the region can build upon.
"All you hear about is, 'Everybody's leaving. Everybody's leaving,'" said Richey Piiparinen, a demographic researcher who co-authored the study with fellow researcher Jim Russell. "But that's not the problem. There's a lack of newcomers. Why? Because there's no appetite to get newcomers into the fold."
Piiparinen and Russell point out that Greater Cleveland's rate of out-migration, or people leaving, ranked an enviable 34th among America's largest metro areas last decade. But the region's in-migration, or numbers of new arrivals, ranked an abysmal 47th.
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Greg BrownPiiparinen and Russell blame a dearth of arrivals on a lack of effort, which they in turn attribute to "a culture of parochialism" that shapes the region's politics, institutions and ultimately its future.
Overcoming shrinking city syndrome
The report, "From Balkanized Cleveland to Global Cleveland: A Theory of Change for Legacy Cities," is attracting lots of early attention from planners and economic development experts who have seen drafts.
"It changes the paradigm of how we see the problems in our community," said Eric Wobser, the executive ditector of Ohio City Inc., which financially supported the research.
Greg Brown, a demographer and the executive director of the local think tank PolicyBridge, agrees.
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Qiao Bao and her husband, Renjun, moved from China to Cleveland to pursue research opportunities and are raising their family in University Heights. A new study says Cleveland needs to open itself to the world to succeed in the global economy. "We're always going to have people leaving," he said. "The real emphasis needs to be on what it's going to take to bring people here."
Brown notes that other cities have used newcomers as economic drivers, to upgrade and diversify the labor force and attract new businesses, instead of simply focusing on keeping existing businesses.
Tom Waltermire, president of the regional business attraction agency Team NEO, said he long suspected that brain drain -- the loss of educated young people -- was overrated.
"What we're missing is the inflow," he said.
In business and industry, Waltermire said, new people and new ideas keep companies young. He cited as an example Canton's Diebold Corp., a company that began as a safe maker in 1859 and now manages information flow for bank branches worldwide.
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Joy Roller"They could have gone the way of the buggy whip. But they kept seeing new opportunities and sophisticated opportunities," Waltermire said.
Piiparinen and Russell argue Cleveland leaders have been lacking that vision.
"Cleveland didn't decline because people left," the report states. "Cleveland's ultimate problem is that it is cut off from the global flow of people and ideas."
While some in Cleveland accept its lot as a shrinking city, they write, neighborhoods like Tremont and Ohio City are growing with newcomers who like what they find. Asiatown and the Clark-Fulton neighborhood continue to attract immigrants, and downtown's residential community mushroomed last decade with young adults.
Piiparinen and Russell say the region can build upon such positive "micro trends" that show that forces that shape migration patterns are changing.
Midwest cities loom more attractive to couples and companies priced out of more popular cities, they argue, as well as to people hoping to make a difference with their lives.
For evidence, they point to the fact that Greater Cleveland attracts more people from New York City, Boston and Chicago than it sends their way.
Building a cosmopolitan city
Piiparinen said the report was meant to establish a data base for planning and to illustrate that migration is economic development. He said the authors purposely did not seek to map out growth strategies. Others are already at work on that.
Joy Roller, the president of Global Cleveland, said the study will guide steps her agency plans to take to try and put the region back on a growth trajectory.
Next year, she and her staff plan to visit a series of "diaspora cities," cities with lots of ex-Clevelanders, to remind them of the affordable homes and the opportunities that await on the Lake Erie shore. She thinks that message will resonate with an array of people and cultures.
"We have to become a global city," Roller said. "We need to bring people back to the city who will form new networks and spark new ideas."
They may not be roundly welcomed, the study notes and some planners agree.
The growing cities highlighted in the report churn with more than just boomerangers and native-born young people. They churn with immigrants, who make up a significant portion of cities like Chicago, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Boston and Toronto.
Almost entirely native-born, Cleveland has little experience with immigrants. They would be a key part of the success of any attraction strategy, which may be why both the county and city have been timid in their efforts.
"I think it's going to continue to be a tough sell," said Brown, who is a member of the board of Global Cleveland.
He said many politicians and their constituents still view immigrants as job takers, not job creators. Those attitudes are changing as global-minded young people arrive, but slowly.
"We're going to have to be a multicultural city," he said. "I don't know how long it's going to take, but I do think our community will look a whole lot different 50 years from now."