Holiday retail spending is expected to increase 2.1 percent in Greater Cleveland, and 2.1 percent in the Akron area, and 1.54 percent in Ohio overall, the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants says.
CLEVELAND, Ohio - The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants's Focus on Ohio's Future and the University of Cincinnati Economics Center expect Ohioans to spend 1.54 percent more over the holidays in 2016.
That's about a third of the 4.2 percent increase they predicted this time last year, but still reflects $22.2 billion in spending, compared to last year's $21.7 billion, said Jennifer Shand, senior research associate with the Economics Center and author of the study that released the figures.
It's also lower than the 3.6 percent to 4 percent national holiday forecasts issued by Deloitte and the National Retail Federation, and the 10 percent increase predicted by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Some of the reasons for Ohio's decline from 2015:
-- A larger percentage of consumers shopping online and via their mobile phones, but not necessarily from Ohio retailers.
-- More people spending on entertainment and experiences over consumer goods. That would be like buying your parents a season's subscription to Playhouse Square or a fancy dinner at Cowell & Hubbard instead of a gift.
-- Economic stability in Ohio's economy, but not necessarily growth over previous years.
-- Smaller increases in wages and salaries, despite the modest increase in employment.
-- Consumer confidence remains strong, but how much people actually spend is influenced by household debt, employment and wages.
Ohio's three largest metro areas - Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati - account for 54 percent of the state's holiday retail sales, but are expected to grow more modestly than smaller areas of the state.
Holiday spending is expected to increase 2.1 percent in Greater Cleveland and 2.1 percent in the Akron area, for example, while the Youngstown market leads the state with forecasted growth of 6.2 percent.
But Columbus' 3.1 percent increase translates to $4.3 million, while Youngstown's 6.2 percent increase means an estimated $776,000 in sales. Greater Cleveland's sales account for 18.1 percent of the state's holiday retail spending, while Akron accounts for 6.2 percent.
"As a critical indicator of overall economic vitality for Ohioans statewide, we are pleased to note that the study reports that Ohio's total wages and salaries continue to grow and consumer confidence remains strong," said Gordon Gough, president and chief executive officer of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, in a statement.
The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, founded in 1922, represents more than 7,500 retailers across the state. The data was compiled from retailers throughout all 88 Ohio counties, except for motor vehicle and parts dealers and gas stations.
Shand noted that overall retail spending for the year was up 5 percent statewide over 2015.
The exploding popularity of online and mobile shopping means bricks-and-morter retailers are not only competing for consumers with what they're selling, but how they're selling it, the Economics Center report said. On the other hand, "consumers enjoy the competition for their dollars shown in more price, product and service options," Shand said.
"The ease of shopping provided by online and mobile platforms means that customers can discover new products and vendors more easily, and bargain shop during the year in advance of the holiday season," according to the report.
Morever, "digital and mobile technology means that consumers are generally more informed, with the ability to research their purchases before they arrive at the store," the report continued. That may make them less likely to browse and make other impulse purchases while they're in the store.
Finally, "while the presidential election has generated questions about the future performance of the economy, it is unclear if the outcome will be more or less positive for spending overall."
Gough said: "While the forecast shows the continued importance of the retail industry in Ohioans' lives this holiday season, we should also recognize the economic value of retail to our overall economy.
"Ohio's retail industry accounts for $26.5 billion of Ohio's annual Gross Domestic Product and supports 1.5 million jobs, 1 in 4 of all Ohio jobs, more than any other industry," he added.