The National Retail Federation estimates that 135.8 million people plan to shop in-store or online on Thanksgiving-Black Friday-Small Business Saturday or Sunday, the first major weekend of the 2015 holiday shopping season.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The National Retail Federation estimates that 135.8 million people plan to shop in-store or online on Thanksgiving-Black Friday-Small Business Saturday or Sunday, slightly more than the actual number who hit stores and websites over the same weekend in 2014.
That's despite its earlier reports that 57 percent of shoppers were already crossing items off their shopping lists by Nov. 10, drawn by retailers' earlier-than-ever holiday promotions.
"The importance of Thanksgiving weekend to both retailers and consumers will never change," said NRF President and Chief Executive Matthew Shay, in a written statement. "However, retailers have already given consumers several good reasons to start their holiday shopping earlier. We suspect early holiday shoppers could still be on the fence about whether or not to try their hand at finding online and in-store deals Thanksgiving weekend."
"To make it even easier on holiday shoppers this year, we expect retailers will offer exclusive savings each day of the big weekend, including Thanksgiving- and Black Friday-only deals and even extended Cyber Monday promotions throughout the week that follows," he said.
"But this weekend isn't the end-all-be-all," Shay said, as much as the first of several important weekends before the end of the Christmas shopping season.
For example, 79.6 percent of those polled -- or up to 183.8 million shoppers -- plan to browse retailers' websites on Cyber Monday.
Of those who plan to shop next weekend, 73.5 percent said they plan to hit stores or check out online deals on Black Friday, and 22.3 percent plan to scour Thanksgiving Day deals.
Forty-nine percent of shoppers surveyed say they will shop on Saturday, (with 22.3 percent looking specifically for Small Business Saturday promotions), and 23.1 percent said they might shop on Sunday.
Those totals totals include 77.8 percent of those ages 18 to 24, and 77.4 percent of those 25 to 34.
"Millennials love shopping in stores and online over Thanksgiving weekend for several reasons, including the opportunities afforded to them that allow them to splurge on 'non-gifts' for themselves, and even the potential to sleep in on Black Friday after having spent the night before bouncing from store to store," said Pam Goodfellow, principal analyst with Prosper Insights & Analytics, which polled 7,172 consumers for the retail federation.
"For these adults, it's less about making room for pumpkin pie, and more about going out with friends, checking out the deals through their mobile phones and experiencing retailers' night owl hours, and perhaps making a dent in their in shopping lists," she added.
Of Millennials who plan to shop over the weekend, 84.3 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds and 80.2 percent of 25 - to 34-year-olds plan do so on Black Friday.
Shopping on Thanksgiving appeals to 25.4 percent of those 18 to 24, and 32.7 percent of those 25 to 34.
Among those 25 to 34, more than one-third (34.7 percent) of those who plan to shop on Saturday are planning to support small businesses.
And Cyber Monday is especially popular among younger shoppers, with 88.7 percent of those 18 to 24, and 90.9 percent of those 25 to 34 planning to visit retailers' websites that day.
Never mind that 65 percent of shoppers 25 to 34 said they had already started their holiday shopping by early November. Goodfellow attributed some of that early shopping to self-gifting.
"Given how shoppers of all ages gravitate towards digital and online shopping experiences, there's a high likelihood online shopping will be bigger than ever over the holiday weekend and on Cyber Monday," she said.