Winter really IS on the way, but you can forget about a polar vortex and budget-busting heating bills. Lower-priced natural gas, propane and heating oil -- and predictions of a warmer than average winter -- mean heating bills could be the lowest in several years.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The end of the region's November heat wave this weekend means you'll start spending more money to heat your home the rest of this month as daytime high temperatures creep into only the 50s or low 60s and overnight temperatures sink into the mid-and-lower 30s.
And with winter not far off, the temperatures will only get worse.
But the cost of heating your home this year will take a smaller bite out of household budgets than it has in many years before, say energy analysts.
Here's why: Northern Ohio is in for a warmer-than-normal winter, and fuel prices are lower than they have been in at least three years.
This winter will be warmer than normal for much of the nation because of a global weather pattern known as El Nino, which allows fast moving winds high in the southern atmosphere to dominate weather patterns.
The impact of that strong southern jet stream varies by region. In the Midwest, it creates warmer-and-drier-than-normal winters.
Just as important for your heating bill: The oil and gas industry has created a surplus of natural gas, propane and heating oil. Prices are low.
"It's a real simple story. Natural-gas prices are going to be low this year. That's the way it's going to be," said William O'Grady, executive vice president of Confluence Investment Management of St. Louis.
Energy prices, especially natural-gas prices, are not only low now but they are expected to stay low because of the glut of gas in storage and because gas production has been increasing despite a slowdown in drilling.
November natural gas contract prices were set at just $2.03 per 1,000 cubic feet.
That's exceptionally good news for Dominion East Ohio customers who buy gas through the utility's Standard Choice Offer.
The SCO varies by the month. Dominion sets the price by adding just 2 cents to the commodity price. Analysts expect commodity prices to stay low because of record supplies and a warm winter.
Natural-gas prices could drop below $2, said Houston-based Robert Ineson, managing director of North American natural gas for IHS CERA, a global energy consulting firm.
"A little bit of mild weather could do it," he said, "even during the course of the winter."
Low natural gas prices have driven down even the cost of electricity because gas is replacing coal as the fuel of choice for power companies.
Propane, derived from "wet gas," is also less costly than in previous winters. And heating oil, made from oil, has followed oil's steep price decline over the past year.
So, how low will the heating bills go?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has the numbers for you.
For the Midwest, the EIA predicts:
Natural gas overall average heating costs will be 14.2 percent less than last winter. Average home heating bills should total just over $600 for the entire winter.
Propane overall average heating costs will be 21 percent lower than last winter and total about $1,234;
Electric overall average heating costs will be 3 percent lower than last winter and total about $1,000.
The EIA did not break out overall winter heating oil costs by region but projected a national average decline of 25 percent compared to last year and total about $1,400 for the winter.
While you cannot expect this past week's 70-plus-degree days to continue over the next three months, the temperatures won't be miserable. You can forget about the term "Polar Vortex."
Northern Ohio and the entire Great Lakes region will be warmer than normal well into January, said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.
And lake-effect snow?
There is a good chance it won't happen much -- even if Lake Erie does not freeze over -- said Pastelok.
"I am looking for a below-normal lake effect despite the temperature of the lake water because I don't see cold air coming down and sticking around."
What lake-effect snow there is will arrive with fast-moving storms that travel west to east, he said.
The El Nino's impact could lessen late in the winter, warned Pastelok, because of another atmospheric shift arising from the interaction of the air with very warm Pacific Ocean waters -- sometimes called "the blob" -- off the coast of California.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, can lessen the impact of the El Nino, said Pastelok, occasionally opening the door here to a shot of cold Canadian air.
Though it is too early to predict, a strong PDO could make that happen in February and March, Pastelok said.
But even in January, typically the coldest month of the year, there should be relatively warm days, he added.
"The January normal high temperature is 34 and the normal low is about 21 or 22. I don't see temperatures staying below the normal average," he said.
"I am not predicting 60s and 70s in January," he said. "But even last year we had six or seven days in January when it was above the normal of 34 degrees. I can see that (number of days) doubling this year."